Other F-22 Shutdown Considerations

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From AF Daily Report 21 May 09

Another F-22 Issue in the QDR: Japan and Australia have both made it quite clear they want to buy the F-22 as an essential equalizer in the Asia-Pacific region, but no one at the Pentagon seems to be dealing with the issue. Defense Secretary Robert Gates has spoken of "building partner capacity" and said at the Air War College this spring that he envisions a "100-wing air force" comprised of the US and allied air arms. Asked yesterday if the Pentagon will engage with Congress to allow Australia and Japan to buy the F-22, Defense Undersecretary for Policy Michelle Flournoy said, "We haven't gotten to that issue yet" and that it will be addressed in the Quadrennial Defense Review. She said she's aware of the fact that the clock is running—F-22 production is shutting down—and that she knows of the two countries' "interest" in the aircraft. Current Air Force leaders are reluctant to consider F-22 for foreign sales, unlike the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, which was designed for export to partner nations.



Closing Thoughts: The Air Force faces the decision as soon as next month on how to shutter the F-22 production line, according to two officials in the F-22 program office at Wright-Patterson AFB, Ohio. Options range from closing down the line completely, which would preclude reconstitution, to retaining some tooling in storage for future repairs, F-22 life extensions, or even a line restart at some point for some additional cost, they told the Daily Report last week during an interview at the Ohio base. Vince Lewis, chief of capabilities planning and integration in the office, said reaching a decision in June is important since work for third- and fourth-tier suppliers is already drying up. Plus, that timeline would allow the decision to be reflected in the service's Fiscal 2011 amended program objective memorandum, which the service currently is formulating, he said. Both he and Glenn Miller, a support contractor in the office, said the ultimate decision rests with the Office of the Secretary of Defense and Air Force leadership. But at the program office level, "We are proposing that you at least keep enough tooling so that down the road, if you had damage, or you wanted to do something in terms of extending the life, you have got the tooling to work on this airplane," explained Miller. He referred to this option as "shut down with restart capability" and characterized it as "kind of like an insurance policy for the nation." Miller said the program office is working with F-22 prime contractor Lockheed Martin to identify the most cost-efficient manner to do this. (For more on Raptor shutdown scenarios, read F-22 Options Presented.)

F-22 Options:
http://www.airforce-magazine.com/DRArch ... ented.aspx

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I think it's still to "new" of a platform to even talk about exporting Raptors just yet, even to a close ally like Australia. Just my $0.02

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From AF Daily Report 3 Jun 09

Raising Hope with the Rising Sun: According to various news reports, Sen. Daniel Inouye (D-Hawaii), who heads the Senate Appropriations Committee, may be working to prolong the F-22 production line, including enabling a potential export version. According to a New York Times report, F-22 supporters "took heart" when Inouye removed production line shutdown dollars from the 2009 defense supplemental last month. Reuters news service has reported that Inouye's committee might add language to the Fiscal 2010 defense spending bill that would require the Pentagon to study the viability of creating an export version. No doubt there is heightened interest with North Korea's recent antics have stoked the fires. According to the Reuter's report, Japan remains interested in the advanced stealth fighter and is willing to shoulder the cost burden of modifying the F-22 for export. Lawmakers would have to agree to overturn the ban on exports under the Obey amendment. Defense Secretary Robert Gates recently allegedly told the Japanese that the F-22 was not for sale and that they should set their sights on the F-35 instead. However, Michele Flournoy, who heads the Pentagon's policy shop, said the topic of F-22 exports to close allies would be discussed during the Quadrennial Defense Review.

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From AF Daily Report 5 Jun 09

Gates Reaffirms US Tacair Edge: Speaking to airmen at Elmendorf AFB, Alaska, on June 1, Defense Secretary Robert Gates defended his proposed cuts in the Air Force's fighter fleet in Fiscal 2010 as part of overall changes to the US tactical air arm. He said under his plan—to cap F-22 production at 187, shed more than 250 legacy fighters, and rely on the F-35 production line henceforth as the sole active source of advanced stealth fighters—the US will still be left with a "numerical and technological edge" that will remain "extremely strong and far superior to that of any potential competitor for at least the next 15 to 20 years." In fact, Gates said the US will have "roughly 1,200" fifth-generation combat aircraft in 2020, while "the Chinese will have zero." And in 2025, the Chinese will have "a few hundred," while the US will have "1,700 ... plus another 1,000 fourth-generation aircraft," he told the airmen during the town hall meeting he held during his stopover at the base on the final leg of his week-long trip to the Asia-Pacific region. While the Air Force leadership says it supports Gates' moves, his plan has been decried by some lawmakers and sharply criticized by outside experts. (Includes AFPS report by Fred Baker III and Elmendorf report by Amn. Jack Sanders)

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From AF Daily Report 19 Jun 09

More F-22s: Rep. Neil Abercrombie (D-Hawaii) said Thursday morning that he expects "at least" 20 F-22s to be funded in the Fiscal 2010 defense budget. Speaking with defense reporters in Washington, D.C., Abercrombie, who leads the air and land forces panel of the House Armed Services Committee, said it was the sense of Congress last fall that 20 more of the new fighters are needed, if only for "breathing room" to make thoughtful decisions about national strategy and the role of airpower. He said that continued obstruction on the F-22 program by Defense Secretary Robert Gates would not stand, asserting that the Pentagon needs "to learn who's in charge." He shrugged off the fact that the June 17 committee budget markup only covered 12 F-22s, saying that if he'd had his way, he would only have put "one dollar" in as a "placeholder" for continued production. He said that there is strong bipartisan consensus that if the committee could have found more money, it would have made the number 20 Raptors. Abercrombie also said he's confident House and Senate appropriators will support additional F-22s. His own panel only had a "pond" of funds to work with, he said, but the full House has a "lake" and the conference has an "ocean." The money will be found, he said.

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From AF Daily Report 19 Jun 09

Export F-22 Still Open: The chairman of the House Armed Services Committee's air and land forces panel believes that the possibility of an export model of the F-22 coming to fruition remains "on the table," but many of the factors, including the prohibitive Obey amendment, remain up in the air. "Yes, we're taking a look at it," Rep. Neil Abercrombie (D-Hawaii) told defense reporters in Washington Thursday, because foreign sales "offers some very interesting possibilities for perhaps bringing down the cost per airplane." However, an F-22 export version would require significant changes and the sales environment has changed. "The guarantees that these foreign sales are available to us are not necessarily as solid as they were before," he explained. Abercrombie noted that Rep. Joe Courtney (D-Conn.) had added an amendment to the committee's version of the Fiscal 2010 defense bill that would require a report from the Pentagon on the potential for sales of the aircraft to Japan—now the most likely customer for the fighter. The amendment, which carries a 30-day ticking clock after the defense bill becomes public law, would require details on the cost of developing an export version, its feasibility and timeframe, the strategic implications, impact of foreign sales on the US industrial base, and any changes to the law needed to proceed with the sale.

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From AF Daily Report 22 JUN 09

Gates Has a Big Problem: Defense Secretary Robert Gates says he has "a big problem" with the House Armed Services Committee addition of 12 F-22 Raptors to the 2010 defense budget. He told reporters at the Pentagon June 18 that the reason is "because it continues the F-22 program, which is contrary to the recommendations I made to the President." However, Rep. Neil Abercrombie (D-Hawaii), who as chairman of the committee's air and land forces panel put forth the additional Raptors, says we need them to provide "breathing room" to keep F-22 production going while debate continues on national strategy as the Pentagon works through the Quadrennial Defense Review. For Gates that debate is obviously over. In a direct slap at the professional opinion expressed recently by Air Combat Command boss Gen. John Corley that the current national military strategy requires more than 187 F-22 fighters, Gates told the reporters: "Frankly, to be blunt about it, the notion that not buying 60 more F-22s imperils the national security of the United States I find completely nonsense." With that statement, Gates not only derides Corley's judgment but also that of Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Norton Schwartz, who has acknowledged the fiscal constraints that make a smaller F-22 force necessary, but who has stated publicly that the current military requirement is for 243 Raptors. Asked when he would recommend a presidential veto, Gates said, "I'm not going to go that far at this point." Abercrombie, however, meeting with reporters, openly ridiculed the notion of a veto, claiming that President Obama would be uncharacteristically foolhardy to veto a defense bill over the issue of a few airplanes. Abercrombie added that, in any event, a veto would be met in a flash with an override by huge supermajorities in each chamber. (Gates press briefing transcript)

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From AF Daily Report 22 Jun 09

Corley's Rationale: In making his unvarnished military assessment of the high risk he sees in halting F-22 production at 187 aircraft, Air Combat Command boss Gen. John Corley upheld his sworn duty to Congress to "provide his unbiased opinion on all matters of military importance," according to a June 19 statement from ACC. It's important to note, too, that in Corley's written response to a direct request from Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R-Ga.) about the F-22 risk factor, Corley noted that USAF leaders had asked for and received ACC views, but he also acknowledged that they and DOD leaders were faced with "tough choices … in balancing current warfighting needs against fiscal realities." That, in our view, shows integrity. Among the factors, ACC says Corley used in making his assessment were the need for homeland defense, combatant commanders' requirements, opposing air and ground threats, ongoing reductions in fighter force structure, and the rapidly aging fighter force—all part and parcel of the Defense Strategy Force Planning Construct. For Defense Secretary Robert Gates to dismiss Corley's assessment as "nonsense" is nonsensical.

Between Proverbial Rock and a Hard Place: Air Force Secretary Michael Donley and Chief of Staff Gen. Norton Schwartz issued a joint statement last week, acknowledging that they had considered the views of Gen. John Corley, who leads Air Combat Command, on the F-22 risk factor (see above and here High Risk). The bottom line, as they have said before, is that other needs trumped continuing F-22 production beyond 187 aircraft when they had to work within a fixed budget. They said: "We assessed the F-22 by taking into account competing strategic priorities and complementary programs within the context of available resources. After carefully considering a full range of views and alternatives, including those expressed by General Corley, we recommended to Secretary Gates that other priority Air Force programs should not be reduced in order to fund additional F-22s beyond the program of record." That, in our view, is an honest presentation of the situation and in no way denigrates Corley's military expertise.

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From AF Daily Report 9 JUL 09

Wyatt Weighs in on F-22: Given the nature of current and future threats, particularly seaborne cruise missiles, the F-22 is clearly the fighter of choice to protect the American homeland, Lt. Gen. Harry Wyatt, director of the Air National Guard, has told Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R-Ga.). "I am fond of saying that 'America's most important job should be handled by America's best fighter,'" Wyatt told the Senator in a June 19 letter that has just been made available publicly. Wyatt's comments came in response to Chambliss' request for him to weigh in on the air sovereignty alert mission. The future viability of the mission has come under question by GAO and in Congress due to the Air Force's current retirement plans for its legacy fighters, its intent to stop F-22 production, and the desire to use new F-35s to fill any voids. Wyatt wrote that while "a variety of solutions abound," legacy fighters just cannot handle the full spectrum of threats facing the homeland like the F-22 could with its "unique capability." While he said he is "keenly aware" of the strain on resources caused by current economic woes, he believes that the nation can maintain its vitality "by making smart choices" [his emphasis]. In his view, this would entail "basing F-22s (and eventually F-35s) at strategic ANG locations" throughout the US, "while simultaneously making them available to rotationally support worldwide contingency operations." With this letter, Wyatt joins Air Combat Command head Gen. John Corley in making an unambiguous argument for more F-22s than just the 187 that the Pentagon plans to buy.