MAIW Tropical Storm Gustav and other storms thread.

mr.bean · Post by **mr.bean** » 25 Aug 2008, 19:58

Here members can post storm updates. Becuase some of our members live next to the warm water where storms can form and they need to know what's happening in the tropics. ... Weather.com TS Gustav tracker, and maps http://www.weather.com/newscenter/hurri ... ustav.html

mr.bean · Post by **mr.bean** » 27 Aug 2008, 01:16

US oil companies from gulf coast prepare for Hurricane Gustav
http://uk.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/id ... 9720080826
Gustav is still a hurricane
http://www.accuweather.com/news-top-hea ... 8-26_13:48
Louisiana residents, officials are watching
http://www.wdsu.com/news/17299534/detai ... 0308262008

mr.bean · Post by **mr.bean** » 27 Aug 2008, 22:29

Storm kills 22 people, US Gulf Coast is preparing.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080827/ap_ ... al_weather

mr.bean · Post by **mr.bean** » 28 Aug 2008, 01:25

FEMA officials prepare for Gustav
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1219867 ... lenews_wsj
after rising, the path of oil is steady while Gustav threats U.S. oil platforms
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... fer=canada

flyboy · Post by **flyboy** » 28 Aug 2008, 17:54

Whats flying tomorrow into storms:

000
NOUS42 KNHC 281430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT THU 28 AUGUST 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 29/1100Z TO 30/1100Z AUGUST 2008
TCPOD NUMBER.....08-089

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72
A. 29/1800, 30/0000Z
B. AFXXX 1007A GUSTAV
C. 29/1515Z
D. 18.7N 79.9W
E. 29/1700Z TO 30/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49
A. 30/0000Z
B. NOAA9 1107A GUSTAV
C. 29/1730Z
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE -- NOAA 42
A. RESEARCH
B. NOAA2 1207A GUSTAV
C. 29/2000Z
D. NA
E. 29/2200Z TO 30/0200Z
F. 10,000 TO 14,000 FT

FLIGHT FOUR -- TEAL 70
A. 30/0600,1200Z
B. AFXXX 1307A GUSTAV
C. 30/0315Z
D. 19.6N 81.7W
E. 30/0500Z TO 30/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT FIVE
A. RESEARCH
B. NOAA3 1407A GUSTAV
C. 30/0800Z
D. NA
E. 30/1000Z TO 30/1400Z
F. 10,000 TO 14,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES. A
G-IV TAKEOFF FOR 30/1730Z. WP-3 MISSIONS EVERY 12 HRS.

3. REMARKS: G-IV MISSION SCHEDULED FOR 28/1730Z TAKEOFF
CANCELED BY NHC AT 28/1300Z.

11. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

http://www.hurricanehunters.com/

Need to get your NOAA and WC-130 flightplans up todate.

Ford Friendly · Post by **Ford Friendly** » 28 Aug 2008, 19:53

My neice works at the National Weather Service office in Slidell, LA (just NE of New Orleans). She's telling our family that her "offical weathercaster position" this is not only "no Katrina", it's so disorganized that she's not telling her mother to plan on leaving the New Orleans area.

She expects it to hit somewhere around Morgan City, LA with, at worst, low-range Cat 2 winds/windspeed and storm surge that won't threaten the interior of the state to any serious degree.

If you/anyone looks at satellite images of the disturbance, you should be able to see what she's arguing - disorganization makes it difficult to identify an "eye" and therefore track/model plots are tentative at best. The wind speed dropped to a low of 45mph last night and it's barely 75mph today.... Now, neither she nor I are saying that 45mph winds are "nothing to sneeze about", but, it is what it is ---- and it's not a Cat 3/4/5 heading directly for a major city/urban area. Granted things could change in the next 2 days... She simply doesn't think this is "the big one" again.

flyboy · Post by **flyboy** » 28 Aug 2008, 21:49

After living thru Katrina down in Gulfport, MS, I hope we never have another "big one" again. No one expected Katrina to go Cat 5, but if the conditions are right, and they are saying with the warm waters and low wind shear in the Gulf, this one can get to "major status" in the next few days.

With that being said, anytime a hurricane is loose in the Gulf, it is better to be prepared than sorry.

From the National Hurricane Center Discussion:

...BUT ONCE IT EMERGES OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN BY TOMORROW...CONDITIONS APPEAR RATHER FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. DUE TO THE VERY WARM
WATERS SOUTH OF CUBA...COMBINED WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT GUSTAV COULD RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AT SOME POINT WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ALTHOUGH THAT IS NOT EXPLICITLY SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE PROHIBITIVE FOR STRENGTHENING EITHER...SO GUSTAV COULD REACH MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS WITHIN A FEW DAYS...AS FORECAST BY ESSENTIALLY ALL AVAILABLE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

mr.bean · Post by **mr.bean** » 28 Aug 2008, 22:37

New Orleans may get evacuated
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20080828/D92R7N000.html
Louisiana governor declares state of emergency
http://www.bayoubuzz.com/News/Louisiana ... __7375.asp
Mississippi in state of emergency
http://robliberal.com/?p=2708
Got something from Yahoo
http://news.yahoo.com/s/wcom/20080828/w ... anna_forms

Ford Friendly · Post by **Ford Friendly** » 28 Aug 2008, 23:08

I stayed in the New Orleans area during and in the months after Katrina. I've a great idea what the "big one" is and I trust my neice's professional judgement. She works directly with the NHC.

If she isn't telling her mom to leave, then that says an awful lot.

People need to make their own decisions based on who and what they believe to be true.

winsman · Post by **winsman** » 29 Aug 2008, 03:49

I may or may not be around for a while......looks like Gutavvvvvvv.....or however you spell it has its sights set directly on ME......I live in SouthEast Louisiana.....so not sure how bad this one is gonna be or how hard we are gonna be hit......I might be out of power for 2 hours to two weeks......not sure......I will update ASAP....

mr.bean · Post by **mr.bean** » 29 Aug 2008, 13:17

Tourists, resident Jamaicans flee as Gustav pegs Jamaica
http://apnews.myway.com/article/20080829/D92RMHEG0.html
Latest Intel update on storm
http://www.accuweather.com/news-top-hea ... 8-29_08:04

mr.bean · Post by **mr.bean** » 29 Aug 2008, 13:33

Got this from the website of my local paper.
http://www.nwfdailynews.com/news/storm_ ... rsday.html

Ford Friendly · Post by **Ford Friendly** » 29 Aug 2008, 14:18

Probably the two key paragraphs in the above article (to me at least)

"Since track forecasts are always subject to large errors at 3 to 5 days and especially given the notable model spread over the Gulf of Mexico, it is simply impossible to determine exactly where and when Gustav will make final landfall.

"In fact, taking into account the uncertainties in track, intensity and size forecasts, the chances of hurricane-force winds within the next five days are essentially the same at each individual location from the Florida Panhandle coast westward through the entire coastline of Louisiana."

mr.bean · Post by **mr.bean** » 30 Aug 2008, 03:02

President Bush declares emergency in TX, LA
http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id ... 1&catnum=0

Ford Friendly · Post by **Ford Friendly** » 30 Aug 2008, 11:11

Change in Gustav over last 24 hours.
Barometric pressure fell from 991mb to the 950s - that's a major change which is also seen in the increase in wind speed. As of 5am EDT this morning, 115mph surface winds are being projects (based on wind measurements at 10,000 ft.) and it's now got an identifiable center.

FWIW, my neice still hasn't called her mom to say "bug out" - both live in New Orleans. However, she has told my sister to phone a few relatives who live down in Houma and Plaquemines Parish to find out what their plans are. These families live in camps on the bayous and/or areas that historically flood.

mr.bean · Post by **mr.bean** » 30 Aug 2008, 13:06

Gustav now a major hurricane.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080830/ap_ ... al_weather
Keys on Tropical Storm Warning:
http://www.examiner.com/r-1889691~Cat_3 ... rning.html
Gustav plows through the Caymans:
http://abcnews.go.com/International/wir ... id=5689807
Got something from the local paper online.
http://www.nwfdailynews.com/news/gustav ... _gulf.html

mr.bean · Post by **mr.bean** » 30 Aug 2008, 17:39

People are fleeing New Orleans w/out reciving orders
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26425142/

mr.bean · Post by **mr.bean** » 30 Aug 2008, 18:10

Gustav latest update and public advisory
http://www.wkrg.com/hurricane/article/t ... tav/17254/

MIKE JG · Post by **MIKE JG** » 30 Aug 2008, 22:37

This is going to be bad.

At least people are getting out this time.

mr.bean · Post by **mr.bean** » 31 Aug 2008, 00:47

Gustav approaching cat 5
http://www.nwfdailynews.com/news/gustav ... storm.html
State of Alabama preparing for the worst
http://www.wkrg.com/hurricane/article/a ... st1/17429/
Mandatory evacuation for Jackson County, MS effective Sunday.
http://www.wkrg.com/hurricane/article/e ... _ms/17421/
Voluntary evacuations issued tomorrow in Mobile County, Alabama
http://www.wkrg.com/hurricane/article/e ... _ms/17421/
If you haven't checked for advisories from the Natl Weather Service site yet, I have the latest advisories.
http://weather.wkrg.com/wx.php?forecast ... Century,FL
MS gov orders mandatory evacuations for certain residents of Hancock and Harrison Counties
http://hurricanegustavresources.org/200 ... see-below/