Soviets re-opening an airbase?

[GZR_Sactargets]

Russia regains key air base to project power in Caucasus
By ARIEL COHEN
Published: Feb. 5, 2009 at 12:50 PM
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WASHINGTON, Feb. 5 (UPI) -- As the dust over the August 2008 Russian-Georgian war settles, the extent of Russia's geopolitical gain in South Caucasus and the Black Sea is becoming clearer.

Besides the naval base in the Abkhazian port of Ochamchire, of which we wrote recently, Moscow intends to restore the former Soviet air base Bombora in the Gudauta district of Abkhazia.

This is the largest military

airfield in the southern Caucasus, boasting a runway that is 4 kilometers long. The runway ends less than 100 meters from the sea, allowing aircraft to take off at very low altitudes over the sea and proceed undetected by enemy radar in the initial phases of flight.

In the Soviet times, Gudauta -- Bombora -- air base could accommodate all types of military aircraft, including fighter jets, close air support and heavy military transport. The air base used to host a separate paratroops regiment and was among the first air bases to receive the Soviet Sukhoi Su-27 fighter jets (NATO designation Flanker). Sukhoi fighters also operated out of Bombora against Georgian attack aircraft and helicopters in the 1992-1993 Georgian-Abkhaz war. At that time, the Russian military ran the base.

In 1999, acting upon Georgia's demands, Moscow committed to withdrawing from the Gudauta base. In 2001 it declared that it had done so -- a claim Tbilisi has contested continually. According to Gazeta.ru, the Abkhazian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has indirectly confirmed the presence of Russian aircraft in Gudauta after the alleged withdrawal.

In the recent 2008 conflict, Russian airborne troops landed in Bombora to fight the Georgian army in western Georgia.

Whether the Russian military ever fully left the air base or not, there is no question that it is now officially returning. According to a source in the Russian Ministry of Defense, Moscow plans to deploy some 20 aircraft, including a wing of Su-27s (NATO designation Flanker), a squadron of Sukhoi Su-25 (NATO designation Frogfoot) attack aircraft, and several Antonov An-26 (NATO designation Curl) transport aircraft.

The same source identifies "deterrence of Georgia" as the main mission of the base. Moscow also says the restored air base in Abkhazia is necessary to provide proper security for the 2014 Sochi Olympics -- but this explanation is risible.

Deployment of Russian naval, air and land power, including some 3,700 troops, in separatist Abkhazia brings additional threats to Georgia's sovereignty. This move inevitably will worsen relations between Moscow and Tbilisi.

The 26-nation North Atlantic Treaty Organization has voiced concern over the new bases. The United States and the 27-nation European Union have accused Russia of violating the cease-fire agreement that called for limiting Russia's military presence in Abkhazia after the August 2008 war. Russia, in turn, accuses the United States of supporting Tbilisi and aiding in the reconstruction and development of Georgia's military capabilities.

With additional warships, fighter aircraft and military personnel near the Black Sea coast of Georgia, Russia is challenging the position of Washington, which recently signed a Strategic Partnership Charter with Tbilisi. In summer 2008, American warships were still able to enter the Georgian waters to deliver humanitarian aid for the war victims.

The United States supports Georgia's sovereignty and is interested in the security of strategic oil and gas transportation routes from the Caspian basin to the West, particularly the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline.

The new Russian naval and air bases in Abkhazia will change the geopolitical balance of power in the region. They will strengthen Moscow's military stance and make the restoration of Georgia's territorial integrity an almost unrealistic project -- exactly what Moscow is trying to achieve.

--

(Ariel Cohen, Ph.D., is a senior research fellow in Russian and Eurasian studies and international energy security at the Catherine and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute at The Heritage Foundation.)

[starlifterfan]

After watching the old movie SAC with Jimmy Stewart today I did some research on different websites(Military),and it truly seems that the cold war is upon us again,of course the mainstream media isn'nt what it used to be but if you dot all the I'S it does create a broader picture of whats going on,I believe (my opinion)that Russia is doing more than flexing it's muscle,anyways just a little opinion of mine,and by the way your posts are great ..really like the info,Thanks again. GO AIR FORCE!!!!!!

[Ford Friendly]

Russia, along with some Middle East wannabe's, are taking the change in US Administration as an opportunity to try to flex some muscle on the international political scene. Cold War? Not quite that level. Russia isn't increasing their troops to anywhere near the Cold War levels. They are barely a hint of that period in terms of numbers, training or operational readiness. A 98-pound weakling "flexing his muscles" is not very threatening though he might once have been Mr. Olympic.

Few in Obama's Administration have much first hand experience with this level of political ballplaying and the opposition wants to see if "the smooth-talkin' cheerleader from Illinois" is all rhetoric and compromise or if he has balls enough to take a stand and look the other guy square in the eye without flinching. In the inter-connected world of the current global political dance, Kyrgystan apparently thinks that it can gain influence with Russia by kicking the US out of that airbase - similar to what Uzbekistan did roughly a year ago while Bush was seen as something of a lame-duck.

These moves are nothing truly unexpected by long-time analysts if you read certain papers/sources. The same type of testing of the new prez would have occured regardless of who won the election - different scale, timing or issue, maybe, but generally the same sort of testing.

I'd bet money that this is a pebble in the lake compared to what is likely to be a more significant confrontation with Iran within the next six months to a year. Iran's got a lot more to gain than Russia does if it wins any sort of confrontation with/concession from the US.

Hell, Obama has already been quoted saying he "had to get out of the White House".... couldn't stand the heat tho it's only been two and a half weeks.

That's just my opinion, of course.

[GZR_Sactargets]

I first entered Intelligence in 1977 at Intelligence Center Pacific (IPAC). Then came to Omana in the Joint Strategic Target Planning Staff (JSTPS)
Then became the Commander of the Strategic Targeting Intelligence Center (STIC). Did a brief tour at the Pentagon as the Director of the Air Force plan for the General Defense Intelligence Program (GDIP). Then back to Offutt as Chief of Weapons Allocations Division in the JSTPS. Moved out of there to the SAC Director of Targeting (INT) and finished off my career in 1990 as Director of Intelligence Systems (INY). One of the early lessons in intelligence is any analysis or assessment is really the sum of Capability and Intent. Capability is pretty easy to determine. You do sort of bean count of Hardware, basing, exercises, etc. Intent is much harder to figure out. You can deduce some of that from exercises and mostly from Public Statements or what you can glean from other information (human intelligence-HUMINT) or reports from 3rd party sources. You take a lot of bits of information and begin to put them into files then you try to see if there are any interactions between files. Finally you can come to an Intelligence Estimate(IE) or an Assessment. The whole process is very organized. As you get some elements, you begin to look for others. Those become collection requirements. Finding the missing pieces of the puzzle. So we are seeing some changes in structure and capability- Intent is still to be determined.